With decisive wins during the March 12 primaries, former President Trump has cemented his status as the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. President Biden’s slumping approval ratings and various polls that show roughly two-thirds of Americans believe the country is on the “wrong track,” makes a Trump victory in November a clear possibility.
While polls will tighten in the coming months, business leaders should take seriously the possibility of a second Trump term and prepare accordingly. Business leaders need to carefully analyze Trump’s previous presidential actions and his 2024 policy proposals to determine the impact they might have on the economy and the larger business climate.
First, expect a second Trump administration to prioritize tax cuts and deregulation. That means the business community should have an open field to work with Congress next year to extend the 2017 tax reforms that encourage business investment and job creation. The Trump team also will want to repeal burdensome regulations that constrain growth. These are standard-issue GOP priorities, consistent with Trump’s pledge to ensure “lower taxes, bigger paychecks, and more jobs for American workers.”
Second, business leaders should prepare for dramatic changes in energy and environmental policy. Trump made it clear he wants to expand energy domestic exploration and production which are areas that have been severely constrained under the current administration. Likewise, Trump has vowed to check the spread of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investment policies. He argues that ESG injects politics and partisanship into the investing process at the expense of shareholders’ interests. Trump will take executive actions along these lines if he wins a second term.
Third, a new Trump administration will attempt to complete the first term’s mission to have fair and reciprocal trade. Trump was criticized for being anti-trade in his first term, but this is inaccurate. He sought to reset U.S. international trade policy to help sustain and nurture high-skilled domestic manufacturing jobs that suffered from decades of unfairly traded foreign imports. Especially with United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) extension talks set to begin next year, we should expect Trump to send unpredictable messages as part of his “art of the deal” to establish a fair playing field to protect American labor and manufacturers.
Fourth, U.S.-based multinational companies should be prepared for heightened scrutiny of their supply chains in China. Business leaders should expect more stringent regulatory reviews of outbound U.S. investment in key sectors of the Chinese economy such as microelectronics, energy, and biotechnology. A second Trump administration will pursue government incentives and regulations to spur onshoring of supply chains. Business leaders might find it more constructive to downplay their defense of globalization in favor of pursing onshoring strategies that allow their companies sufficient time to transition supply chains domestically.
To be sure, much of the Trump agenda will rely on cooperation from Capitol Hill. President Trump’s pro-business agenda will face headwinds especially if Democrats control the Senate or House. A successful second-term agenda also will require unity with Republican free market stalwarts in the Senate, many of whom remain skeptical of their party’s populist shift. But this uncertainty provides an opportunity for business leaders to position themselves to play the role of honest broker, working with the White House and lawmakers on a bipartisan basis to get things done. That’s one reason the business community should strive to establish trust by seeking a middle way rather than throwing all in with one side.
Business leaders seeking to mitigate risk should start by taking Trump’s policy program seriously, projecting a prudent and cautiously optimistic posture, and working on issues of importance to the country and the economy. By paying careful heed to the former president’s proposals and taking care to avoid wading too deeply into the political fray, business leaders can position themselves to engage with a potential second Trump administration in a way that is constructive and helpful to them.
Joseph Lai served as a special assistant to President Trump for legislative affairs from 2017 to 2019. He is a principal at BGR Group, a government affairs and communications firm based in Washington, D.C., with offices in Austin, Atlanta and London.
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