WNBA Playoffs Preview: Which Teams Will Survive the First Round?

The Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) season has finally come to a close and it has been one of the most eventful campaigns in the league’s history.

The playoff bracket was finally filled on the final night of the season as Atlanta outdueled Dallas, Washington, and Chicago for the final slot in the playoffs and the honor of facing the number one-seeded New York Liberty. Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu have held the torch for the league-leading Liberty who are looking to get the franchise its first Finals win after coming up short a season prior.

But they won’t simply be able to walk to a (potential) title.

A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces are throwing the cards down and going all in on a third consecutive Finals appearance. Elsewhere, the Minnesota Lynx, led by Napheesa Collier, are looking to add a Finals trophy next to the Commissioner’s Cup they won near the start of the season.

With all of that on the cards, here’s a look at the playoff matchups for the first round and our predictions for the first round.

NY Liberty (1) vs Atlanta Dream (8)

Season series: Liberty 3-1

After clinching the last spot of the playoffs on the final day of the season, the Atlanta Dream have a mountain to climb in their matchup against New York Liberty.

The Liberty have led the league in the standings for most of the season with their stacked team led by reigning MVP Stewart, former MVP Jones, and Ionescu, one of the most dynamic guards in the league. New York excels in virtually every category due to its extremely balanced roster where every player fits the team perfectly. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is a vice grip on defense and one of the best cutters in the game, Jones rules the rim while also being devastating from deep, Stewart in the midrange is essentially free points, and while Ionescu hasn’t been her usual accurate self after a shoulder injury she’s still a danger due to her elite passing skills and creation off the dribble.

Atlanta had a tough season thanks to injuries to Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard, but locking in on defense at the season’s end put them on a three-game win streak despite their league-low field goal percentage and being the lowest scoring team in the league. That lack of shooting is buoyed by the great Tina Charles, the WNBA’s all-time leading rebounder, who came in third in rebounding this season behind Wilson and Angel Reese with 374 boards.

Unfortunately, two teams collected more rebounds than Atlanta, the Chicago Sky with Reese and Kamilla Cardoso and their first-round opponent, the New York Liberty. If the Dream hope to upset the league-leaders, they’ll need to hope their smothering defense from the final stretch of the season holds up.

Prediction: New York Liberty in 2

Minnesota Lynx (2) vs Phoenix Mercury (7)

Season series: Minnesota 3-1

Collier and the Minnesota Lynx put the league on notice earlier this season with their Commissioner’s Cup win. Just as everyone thought the discussion would be about the Liberty, Sun, and Aces, the Lynx came in with their disruptive defense and pass-heavy game to plant themselves at the top of the pack.

Minnesota has the best defense in the league with Collier’s Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)-caliber season leading the way. On top of that staunch defense is a zippy offense that always finds the right hands and leads the league in assists and three-point shooting. That combination makes it almost impossible for opposing defenses to completely lock the Lynx down. Minnesota may also have one of the deepest benches in the WNBA which received an additional upgrade with the acquisition of Myisha Hines-Allen from the Washington Mystics.

Meanwhile, Phoenix has been consistently inconsistent even after an injury-riddled start. They ended the season around .500 despite looking like world-beaters at certain points in the season.

Brittney Griner is one of the most efficient scorers in the league and Kahleah Copper is the W’s second-leading scorer, but a lack of rebounding could severely dampen the Mercury’s hope at making a splash in what could be Diana Taurasi’s final season. Yet, like the city of Phoenix itself, this team can get incredibly hot at a moment’s notice, especially Copper, and perhaps Taurasi can turn back the clock for the playoffs and knock it down from deep.

Copper just returned during the season finale from a back injury, so her condition is the biggest key for Phoenix. The Mercury will have to find an X-Factor on the court to overcome their league-low rebounding and play exceptional defense if they hope to turn the tide against a team that can fill it up from deep.

Prediction: Lynx in 2

Connecticut Sun (3) vs Indiana Fever (6)

Season series: Connecticut 3-1

Much has been made of the Connecticut Sun and Indiana Fever matchup since it flashes back to the opening day game between the two squads. Since that initial meeting, both teams have undergone a metamorphosis to bloom into even more formidable threats.

This series also includes a matchup between elite point guards in Alyssa Thomas and Caitlin Clark, both of whom are at the top of the standings in assists. Connecticut hangs its collective hat on the defensive end with Thomas, 2021 MIP Bri Jones, and 2024 MIP-candidate DiJonai Carrington anchoring one of the best units in the league, although they may be lacking in the rebounding department outside of Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

Bonner also has a considerable load on the offensive end, fitting for someone 7 points away from passing Tina Thompson for third on the all-time scoring list. Connecticut added Marina Mabrey from the Chicago Sky to the team before the All-Star break which has bolstered one of the fewest three-point shooting teams with a sniper from outside. The threat of Mabrey’s shooting forces teams to pick their poison between Mabrey and Bonner on the perimeter.

After a miserable start to the season, the Indiana Fever turned it all around and not only secured their first playoff spot since 2016 and best season since 2015 where they lost in the Finals to the Minnesota Lynx.

Led by presumptive Rookie of the Year Clark, the young Fever have turned the tide in the league. Since that last playoff appearance, Indiana has held a wealth of top picks with Kelsey Mitchell going #2 in 2018, NaLyssa Smith #2 in 2022, Lexie Hull at #6 that same year, and Aliyah Boston being last year’s top pick, and rookie of the year. After a lengthy rebuilding period, Indy found the head of Voltron with Clark whose play style perfectly enhances that of Indiana’s fellow top picks.

Her skillful passing is imperative in the pick-and-roll with Boston, who is virtually unguardable at the rim. Her electric scoring paired with Mitchell forces backcourt defenses to be on constant alert. In fact, the entire Fever team requires constant attention on the offensive end, Hull has had an exponential spike in three-point shooting this season and finished second in the league in three-point percentage while also being the defensive backbone of the team.

NaLyssa Smith is shooting a career-high percentage from the floor on fewer attempts while also forming a formidable duo on the boards with Boston. Though the Fever have one of the best offensive teams in the league and lead the league in field goal percentage, their defense is the worst among the playoff teams giving up 85 points a night which could be lethal against a team that held teams under 75 points nightly. However, if there were to be an upset this round it would be at the hands of Indiana’s three-point shooting.

Prediction: Connecticut in 3

Las Vegas Aces (4) vs Seattle Storm (5)

Season series: Las Vegas 3-1

The reigning champion Aces have had a surprisingly tumultuous season, doubling their losses from the last campaign, partially due to missing All-Star point guard Chelsea Gray to start the season. Their 27-13 record comes despite the transcendental play of Wilson who has had one of the greatest seasons in league history notching the first-ever 1,000-point season and securing the most rebounds in WNBA. The Aces looked a bit shaky coming out of the Olympic break but closed the year on a 9-1 streak with the lone loss coming with Wilson sidelined by an ankle injury against the Liberty. Hopefully, that streak has the team sharpened as the Aces will have a fight ahead of them after being matched up against underwhelming eighth seeds in 2022 and 2023.

Seattle is back in the playoffs after almost completely retooling during the offseason and adding in two new stars alongside mainstays Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor. Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike’s addition to the team has added one of the league’s best passers and one of the most efficient bucket-getters and defensive engines, respectively to a storied franchise.

The Storm had a strong start to the season but faltered a bit after the break and went the last week of the season without their leading scorer Loyd and DPOY-candidate Magbegor who helps anchor one of the best interior defenses in the league; she’ll be a key factor if teams even wish to hope of dreaming stop Wilson. Seattle also leads the league in steals with all five of their starters having quick, active hands so they’ll hope to turn mistakes into easy buckets if they want to take down the champs. While Seattle’s coach has said Loyd will lace ’em up for game one, her health is key to making the Aces fold.

Prediction: Aces in 2

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