What Georgia Ballot Decision Could Mean for Donald Trump: Analysts

Political experts are weighing in on a new Georgia presidential election ballot-counting rule that was put into place by election officials whom former President Donald Trump praised as “pit bulls.”

Georgia’s State Election Board introduced a rule last week requiring that ballots be counted by hand three times before a result is declared this year. The change was approved by a 3-2 vote, with Trump-backed Republican members Janice Johnston, Rick Jaffares and Janelle King all voting in favor.

The election board’s Republican chair and lone Democratic member voted against adopting the rule, while state officials and lawmakers from both parties have warned that the last-minute change could create chaos in November and potentially undermine public confidence in the election outcome.

The board members who voted in favor of the rule have defended the change as a way to mitigate potential mayhem. King told NBC News last week that the rule would ensure there would be no “candidates saying that they think the count is off or they want an audit.”

However, Newsweek spoke to several political scientists who said that the hand- counting rule and other changes pushed by the pro-Trump board members could cause more problems than they purport to solve.

Newsweek reached out for comment to Georgia’s State Election Board, including Johnston, Jaffares and King, via online contact form on Tuesday.

‘Confusion and Delay’

Jennifer McCoy, Regents political science professor at Georgia State University, told Newsweek that the rule change introduces “a high risk of confusion and delay in Georgia’s vote” and could cause the state to miss certification deadlines.

“This rules change and ones made previously, this close to the election, could affect Georgia’s certification of the election by the deadline of November 11,” McCoy said. “The established procedure is to conduct audits of a sample of the voting machines after the election, including counting the ballot papers, to determine if there are any anomalies, which would then be investigated.”

“This new rule introduces a change in the training process only three weeks before early voting starts, and violates the established chain of custody guaranteeing security of the ballots, as noted by Secretary of State [Brad] Raffensperger,” she added.

Raffensperger, a Republican who has been frequently targeted by Trump since refusing the former president’s request to “find” him enough votes to overturn his 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden, has suggested that the change could inspire new election conspiracy theories in November.

“Quick reporting of results is a hallmark of Georgia’s election administration and bolsters voter confidence,” Raffensperger said in a statement last month. “Delays in results create a vacuum that leads to misinformation and disinformation.”

Adrienne Jones, assistant professor of political science at Atlanta’s Morehouse College, told Newsweek that the board’s change “will make it easier for Trump to challenge the election” should he lose.

“The hand count will create delays real or manufactured and provide a legal basis for the former president to contest the outcome and encourage Georgia officials to support him in that effort,” Jones said.

“They would have liked similar laws to have existed in 2020 to aid his push to have 11,780 votes transferred to him and or to have fake electors represent the state in the Electoral College,” she continued.

Georgia State Election Board Chairman John Fervier, a Republican who voted against the new rule, has expressed concerns that the change was passed “too late to train poll workers.”

Valdosta State University political science professor Bernard Tamas, co-chair of the Georgia chapter of the Scholars Strategy Network, said that the late change could “overwhelm” election workers.

“Last minute changes to electoral rules in Georgia risk overwhelming the capacities of the state’s election officials, who have raised concerns about human error during hand counting,” Tamas told Newsweek. “Training is already underway in many counties.”

Setting Conditions for 2020-Style Fraud Claims

In several states that Trump lost in 2020, the former president was leading in early vote counts that did not yet include ballots in areas that voted for Biden. When ballots that were counted later and showed Biden taking the lead, the former president baselessly claimed that the changes amounted to fraud.

Tamas said that adopting the rule requiring that ballots be hand-counted “could make it easier for Trump to claim that the process was rigged against him” and repeat his previous fraud claims.

“It would produce unnecessary delays in the reporting of election results, especially in the more populated precincts that Harris is more likely to win,” Tamas said. “It could produce the image that Trump is leading at first with Harris ‘catching up’ later.”

“Hand counting ballots is also not without error, which could produce the appearance of irregularity when it does not exist, which in turn could be used as a justification for more thorough audits, producing even more delays,” he added.

Charles S. Bullock III, the Richard B. Russell chair in political science at the University of Georgia, said in comments to Newsweek that rural counties that may heavily back Trump would likely complete their hand-counts first.

“This may contribute to the phenomenon observed in 2020, and earlier years, where the early vote coming from rural counties shows Republican candidates leading with a lead that may be erased when the urban vote is tallied,” Bullock said.

“Trump’s loss of an election night lead in GA of as much as 300,000 votes seemingly fueled his claims of malfeasance,” he added.

Other Changes and an Uncertain Future

It is not clear that the hand-counted ballots rule will stand up to legal scrutiny, with Raffensperger telling CBS affiliate WRDW on Tuesday that the board does not “have the authority to do what they think they’re going to do” because they “can’t make” state law.

Two legal challenges seeking to invalidate the ballot-counting rule are expected to be heard in early October. Republican Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr said last week that the changes “very likely exceed the board’s statutory authority.”

“I don’t know that this requirement, if it is allowed by the courts where it will be challenged, will impact the outcome,” Bullock said. “If Trump loses, he will claim the election was stolen, even if all the changes the GA Election Board has made at his behest are in place.”

Tamas pointed out that instances of actual voter fraud “are rare and statistically negligible,” while arguing that the hand-counting rule was only one of several recent changes by the board that could undermine election integrity.

“The Georgia State Election Board’s other recent decisions make it easier for citizens to challenge other voters’ eligibility, and they allow the election board to conduct a ‘reasonable inquiry’ before certifying the election results,” Tamas said.

“This rule is ill-defined at present and could potentially add confusion by creating further delays in the election process,” he added. “They will likely stretch the capacities of the state’s election officials and cause high levels of chaos.”

McCoy said that a change allowing the board “to request review of unlimited voting materials before deciding to certify the election” could impact the election at the national level by blocking certification of a potential Harris win.

“If that extreme scenario were to occur, it would wreak havoc with the outcome and confidence in the entire national election,” she said.

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