I was mugged in Cambridge, Mass., back in 1979. I wasn’t hurt; I matter-of-factly handed over my wallet, and that was that. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rattled, and from then on I was a bit more careful about where I walked, especially after dark.
I tell this story now only to say that I’m old enough to remember from personal experience what it was like when many of America’s cities really were dangerous — and I don’t need official crime statistics to know that they’re much safer now. I live in New York these days, and I never hesitate to strike out on foot or, say, take the subway home from a late-night concert at the Bowery Ballroom.
As it happens, though, the official numbers match my perception. In 2023, there were 83 percent fewer robberies in New York than in 1990. Murder declined by roughly the same percentage. Oh, and homicides have fallen substantially since 2021 despite a large influx of migrants. Violent crime trends at a national level haven’t been quite as pronounced, but overall the murder rate in 2023 was far lower than it was in the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s.
Which brings us, of course, to Donald Trump.
The Republican National Convention devoted a whole day to the theme “Make America Safe Again.” On Tuesday, as part of his effort at counterprogramming as the Democrats formally nominate Kamala Harris, Trump held an event near Detroit that was supposed to be devoted to crime and safety, in which he asserted that we’re in the midst of a “Kamala crime wave,” with crime at levels “nobody has ever seen before.” In big cities “almost all run by Democrats,” he claimed, “you can’t walk across the street to get a loaf of bread. You get shot. You get mugged. You get raped.”
Astoundingly false claims, even for him.
Also on Tuesday, The Detroit News reported that the Trump campaign had agreed to participate in an interview, but “after the newspaper began asking about the Michigan crime data before the event, a campaign aide said the presidential candidate no longer had time for an interview.”
It’s not hard to see why. Detroit’s homicide rate is much higher than that in New York, which despite its reputation is remarkably safe. But the homicide rate in Detroit was lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2020, and it dropped sharply in 2023. Clearly, Trump would have found a data-driven discussion awkward.
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