Each Monday morning for the next two months, we’ll take an in-depth look at what the polls can tell us.
After a summer of political upheaval, the polls are finally showing what analysts expected all along: a dead heat.
According to the New York Times polling averages, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in an extremely tight contest heading into their first debate Tuesday. Neither candidate has a clear lead in the battleground states likeliest to decide the Electoral College
In today’s polarized era, it’s hard to be surprised by polls showing a close race. But the polls today aren’t just close. In the era of modern polling, there’s never been an election when the final polls showed the race as close as it is today — not in 2000, 2004 or 2012, let alone 2016 or 2020.
From now until Election Day, we’ll be kicking off our Monday mornings with a wider look at the state of the race. Here’s where things stand with eight weeks to go.
The state of the race
The national polls show Vice President Harris with a modest two-point lead over Mr. Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent.
| Polling Leader | If Polls miss like they did in … | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2020 | ||
| U.S. National | +2 Harris | +1 Harris | +2 Trump |
| Wis. Wisconsin | +2 Harris | +5 Harris | +7 Trump |
| Mich. Michigan | +2 Harris | +8 Harris | +3 Trump |
| Pa. Pennsylvania | +1 Harris | +6 Harris | +4 Trump |
| Nev. Nevada | Even | +3 Harris | +3 Trump |
| Ga. Georgia | Even | <1 Trump | +1 Trump |
| N.C. North Carolina | Even | +1 Harris | +4 Trump |
| Ariz. Arizona | +1 Trump | +3 Harris | +3 Trump |
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:
Electoral votes if current polling translates perfectly to results (it won’t):
Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2020:
Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2022:
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