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Oscar Predictions: Best Actress — Is There Room for Both ‘Next Door’ Stars Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role

‘The Outrun’
Biarritz Nouvelles Vagues Festival

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): Will there be room for two Oscar winners from the same movie this awards season?

Pedro Almodóvar’s highly anticipated melodrama, “The Room Next Door,” is riding high after winning the prestigious Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival. Variety also revealed that the film’s two Oscar-winning stars, Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, will be submitted for lead actress consideration, hoping to be the first dual nominated co-leads since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for “Thelma & Louise” (1991).

Jacques Audiard’s critically acclaimed Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” is positioned to dominate the awards circuit. As Variety exclusively reported, Karla Sofía Gascón, who portrays the titular character, will be submitted for lead actress consideration.

In a performance that profoundly resonates with her personal experiences, Gascón plays a fearsome drug lord before Emilia’s transition, blending power and vulnerability in a portrayal that could make history. If nominated, Gascón would be the first openly trans actress to receive an Academy Award nomination.

Along with her Netflix counterpart Angelina Jolie from Pablo Larrain’s “Maria,” she seems well-positioned for recognition this early in awards season.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan, gearing up for a fierce Oscar season with two performances vying for top honors. Ronan will compete in the lead actress race for the Sundance hit “The Outrun” and in the supporting actress category for her role in the World War II epic “Blitz” — potentially positioning her as a double acting nominee this awards season. If double-nominated, she would become the 13th person and youngest actor to receive two acting nominations in the same year. Of the 12 previous actors to achieve this, seven won for one of their nominated performances: Fay Bainter, Teresa Wright, Barry Fitzgerald, Jessica Lange, Al Pacino, Holly Hunter and Jamie Foxx.

In “The Outrun,” Ronan takes on the emotionally charged role of Rona, a former addict seeking recovery and healing in the remote Orkney Islands. The film, co-written by Nora Fingscheidt and Amy Liptrot, is based on Liptrot’s memoir. The supporting cast includes Paapa Essiedu and Stephen Dillane. Behind the scenes, Ronan also serves as a producer alongside her husband, Jack Lowden, as well as Sarah Brocklehurst and Dominic Norris. Three women have previously won the best actress Oscar for films they also produced: Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”), Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”).

The updated best actress prediction charts are below.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

  • Anora trailer
    Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy Neon/YouTube

    And the Predicted Nominees Are

    RankPerformer & Film
    1Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix)
    2Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    3Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
    4Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    5Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

  • I'm Still Here
    Image Credit: Courtesy of Videofilmes, Venice Film Festival

    Next in Line

    RankPerformer & Film
    6Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    7June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
    8Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
    9Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24)
    10Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
    Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

  • Wicked
    Image Credit: Universal

    Other Contenders

    RankPerformer & Film
    11Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    12Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
    13Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    14Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
    15Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24)
    16Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
    17Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
    18Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
    19Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
    20Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
    Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

  • Janet Planet Julianne Nicholson
    Image Credit: Courtesy of A24

    Also In Contention

    RankPerformer & Film
    21Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
    22Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix)
    23Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
    24Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24)
    25Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
    26Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
    27Kerry Washington — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
    28Vic Carmen Sonne — “The Girl With the Needle” (Mubi)
    29Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
    30Lily Collias — “Good One” (Metrograph Pictures)
    Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

  • Eligible Performers (Best Actress)

    Emilia Perez
    Image Credit: Netflix

    This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

    ** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.

    • Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
    • Divya Prabha — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
    • Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
    • Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24)
    • Marisa Abela — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
    • Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
    • Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
    • Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
    • Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) **
    • Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
    • Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24)
    • Vicky Krieps — “The Dead Don’t Hurt” (Shout! Studios)
    • Andra Day — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
    • Margaret Qualley — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
    • Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    • Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) **
    • Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon) **
    • Isabel DeRoy-Olson — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) **
    • Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) **
    • Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
    • Alicia Vikander — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
    • Brandy Norwood — “The Front Room” (A24)
    • Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
    • Lily Collias — “Good One” (Metrograph Pictures)
    • Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
    • Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
    • Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
    • Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix) **
    • Anne Hathaway — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
    • Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    • Blake Lively — “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
    • Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24)
    • Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
    • Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
    • Kristen Stewart — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
    • Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix)
    • Nathalie Emmanuel — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) **
    • Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
    • Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
    • Aubrey Plaza — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
    • Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
    • Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    • Celeste Dalla Porta — “Parthenope” (A24)
    • Stefania Sandrelli — “Parthenope” (A24)
    • Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    • Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    • Riley Keough — “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
    • Kerry Washington — “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
    • Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix)
    • Carey Mulligan — “Spaceman” (Netflix) **
    • Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
    • June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
    • Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “Tuesday” (A24)
    • Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
    • Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
    • Jessie Buckley — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
    • Olivia Colman — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
    • Lupita Nyong’o — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
    • Maya Hawke — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Pictures)
    • Anna Kendrick — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
    • Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • More Information (Oscars: Best Actress)

    Emma Stone accepts the Lead Actress award for "Poor Things" onstage at the 96th Annual Oscars held at Dolby Theatre on March 10, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Rich Polk/Variety via Getty Images)
    Image Credit: Variety via Getty Images

    2024 category winner: Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

    2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here

    • Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
    • General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
    • Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
    • Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
    • Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
    • Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
    • Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
    • Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
    • Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
    • Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
    • Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
    • Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
    • Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
    • Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
    • 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

    Oscars Prediction Categories

    2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

    About the Academy Awards

    The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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