Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
President Joe Biden has received positive polling news with seven months to go until the presidential election, with a survey putting him ahead of Donald Trump for the first time.
So far, polls have been fairly evenly split, with commentators suggesting the race, which is a 2020 rematch, is too close to call.
While that remains the case and things could change between now and November, according to polling from Morning Consult, the incumbent president is leading with 44 percent of the vote share. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for 2024, is projected to garner 42 percent of the vote share in the poll.
The pair are tied among independents, both receiving 34 percent of the vote share. Cameron Easley, lead analyst of U.S. politics for Morning Consult, said this represents the first time Trump hasn’t led among this group of voters.
While a two-point lead may seem insubstantial, an analysis of previous polls suggests the Democrat is now gaining ground on Trump. On January 21, he was projected to gain 40 percent of the vote to the Republican’s 45 percent. On March 14, the Morning Consult polls put both politicians on 43 percent of the vote. With the latest polling included, this shows there has been a net 7-point swing towards Biden.
The survey of 6,018 registered voters was conducted between March 29 and March 31. The margin of error is +/- 1 percentage point.
Newsweek has contacted representatives for Biden and Trump by email to comment on this story.
Speaking to Newsweek, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York said the race was “very close.”
“These latest polls confirm that this campaign is very close and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future,” he said.
A March 8 to 13 poll of 1,436 likely voters conducted by Big Village predicted Trump will get 41 percent of the vote, while Biden will get 40 percent.
Another poll conducted within the same time frame by the same pollsters, but of 1,628 registered voters, forecasts the Republican to get 39 percent of the vote share to Biden’s 37 percent.
President Joe Biden on April 1, 2024, in Washington D.C. A new poll has suggested that the president will see off a challenge from Donald Trump and win a second presidential term.
Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek on Friday that present polling only shows “at best, very general information for an election that is expected to be close like it was in 2020 and 2016 in the electoral vote,” as the election remains months away.
“The polls will not start providing possibly a bit better information until starting in June as more people start paying attention to the election, and then much more so after both party’s conventions; by September they can start becoming more indicative,” he said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Share
Print
