How the Least Discussed Swing State Could Swing Away From Kamala Harris

The least discussed battleground state may be swinging away from Vice President Kamala Harris with only weeks until Election Day.

Nebraska isn’t considered as often as the core seven battleground states ahead of the November 5 election. But the small, traditionally Republican state could play an outsized role in the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump, as its unique way of counting its Electoral College votes could be the difference between a Harris or Trump victory.

Currently, Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their votes in the Electoral College—the statewide victor earns two votes, and each candidate gets one per Congressional district they carry. But with only 46 days until the election, Republican legislators in the Cornhusker State are mulling a last-minute change to how they count their Electoral College votes.

The GOP-controlled legislature is pushing to change to a winner-take-all system ahead of November, when the state’s Second District, centered around Omaha, and its single electoral vote could be crucial.

Nebraska is a red state, but the Second District is thoroughly purple, backing Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden four years ago. Harris is a slight favorite to carry it in November, according to recent polls and election forecasters.

A single Electoral College vote may seem minor, but could be decisive as polls show the race will likely be decided by razor-thin margins in only a handful of battleground states.

Follow Newsweek’s live blog for the latest updates on the election and Mark Robinson’s scandal in North Carolina.

The district is most relevant in the scenario where Harris sweeps the Rust Belt swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—and Trump wins the Sun Belt and southern battlegrounds—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. That puts Harris and Trump at a 269-268 margin, with 270 electoral votes needed to win. Nebraska’s Second, should it go for Harris, would put her at 270.

If Nebraska transitions to a winner-take-all system, Harris would be denied that vote, resulting in an Electoral College tie. It’s not clear that Nebraska Republicans will be able to pull of that feat before Election Day.

Kevin Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told Newsweek he does not believe it is likely state lawmakers will secure enough votes to change its system.

“I’m actually pretty skeptical about the chances of this being pulled off,” he said. “I mean, you never say never, but it’s about to be October, so we’re only a couple of months out from the election. Getting this done in that short of a time period means negotiating some pretty tough obstacles in the legislature.”

Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan on paper, but conservative lawmakers make up a majority in the state, which backed Trump by 19 points in 2020.

Despite the conservative majority, proponents of a winner-take-all system would need a filibuster-proof majority to pass changes to the electoral system. It does not appear the proposal has enough support, as many Nebraskans believe the current system is beneficial by giving the otherwise safely red state some relevance in presidential races.

“The issue is do they have the votes. While I think there is a majority of the legislature who supports it, there’s not enough to break the procedural filibuster that the opponents would tie it up in,” said Randall Adkins, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Omaha.

Governor Jim Pillen, a Republican, has said he would call a special session — the second of the year — to change the electoral system, but only if he knows there are enough votes for the proposal to pass.

State Senator Mike McDonnell, a Republican who changed his affiliation from Democrat this year following backlash on his votes on LGBTQ+ and abortion bills, is still a ‘no’ on the proposal, he said on Thursday. But McDonnell is a crucial swing vote who could determine the fate of the proposal—and therefore, potentially the election.

“Senator McDonnell has heard compelling arguments from both [sides]. And, as of today, [he] is still a no,” his spokesperson Barry Rubin told The Nebraska Examiner on Thursday.

When asked by Newsweek if there is a deadline for when the legislature would need to pass the proposal to change the system, Jackie Ourada, public information officer for the Nebraska secretary of state’s office, said: “If winner-take-all is passed by the legislature before the election, barring any challenges, winner-take-all would go into effect.”

Kate Heltzel, a spokesperson for the Nebraska legislature, told ABC News that others believe the rule would need to be changed before early voting begins on October 7, but that the attorney general’s office has not officially weighed in on a deadline.

Newsweek reached out to the Nebraska attorney general’s office for comment via email.

Some national Republicans are weighing in on the matter.

Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican and staunch Trump ally, met with lawmakers in the state to push for a winner-take-all change this week. He told CBS News he believes it is “very reasonable” to push for the change because “the whole fate of the country and the world could hinge on one electoral vote.”

For his part, Trump urged Nebraska Republicans to make the change in April, writing on Truth Social: “Most Nebraskans have wanted to go back to this system for a very long time, because it’s what 48 other States do – It’s what the Founders intended, and it’s right for Nebraska.”

The Washington Post reported on Friday that he spoke with Nebraska State Senator Merve Riepe during the visit with Graham.

“Primarily I think he was saying, ‘Look, this is important to me. I’m interested, and I want you to know that I’m not just taking anybody for granted,'” Riepe told the newspaper.

Democrats, however, have been harshly critical of these efforts. They argue that splitting the state’s electoral votes yields results more representative of the population. Nebraska is safely Republican, but Biden still won nearly 40 percent of the state’s vote share in 2020.

“Republicans don’t have the votes to change our fair electoral system. Democrats are focused on winning the votes of Nebraskans. If they are so confident in Trump, compete for the votes,” Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, wrote in a post to X (formerly Twitter).

Nebraska Republicans frequently introduce bills to change to a winner-take-all system, but they rarely even make it to the floor, according to Adkins. It’s more notable this time because the Electoral College is expected to be so close, creating more pressure from conservatives concerned about Harris’ chances of winning.

The Maine Connection

If Nebraska changes its electoral system, eyes will turn to Maine, the only other state that splits its electoral votes. Maine typically backs Democrats in presidential races, albeit by single digits in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats have a trifecta in the Pine Tree State, and Democratic legislators previously said they would retaliate to the Nebraska change by switching to a winner-take-all system themselves, which would in theory neutralize Harris’ loss in Nebraska.

But Maine may not be able to change its electoral votes so close to the election.

Legislation in Maine takes 90 days to go into effect, a milestone that passed this week. It would take a supermajority of two-thirds of lawmakers to bypass those 90 days, but that would require Republicans to join them to pass the bill. That is highly unlikely, House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham told The Bangor Daily News.

“Maine has the gold standard of presidential election processes in the United States. We should be trying to convince other states to use a more representative process like ours, not change to winner-take-all like other states,” he said.

Newsweek reached out to the Maine secretary of state’s office for comment via email.

Harris is expected to carry the two statewide votes, and easily carry Maine’s First Congressional district, centered around Portland and the Democratic-leaning southern part of the state.

Trump, meanwhile, is favored in the Second District, which takes in the vast, rural northern part of the state and some more purple or blue cities like Lewiston, Bangor and Augusta. If Maine were to change to a winner-take-all, Harris would be favored to carry all four votes.

The Local Benefits of Vote Splitting

Smith and Adkins both said there are advantages to Nebraska splitting its votes.

If Nebraska did not split its votes, there would be little national attention on the state, Smith said.

“Even though we’re a small state and we don’t have a lot of electoral college votes—the fact that we do [split our votes] can make us something of a player in presidential elections, he said. “If it’s the winner-take-all system, I don’t think presidential and vice presidential candidates are going to be paying much attention to Nebraska.”

Adkins noted support for the current system in the Second District isn’t just confined to Democrats.

“I don’t think it enjoys majority support, or anywhere close to it, in the Second District. That’s not just because of partisan breakdown of the district, but in the Second District, there are Republicans who like the fact that our vote is decided differently. And I think there are some people within the state who feel that being able to divide the votes is a more accurate reflection of the overall distribution of the votes in the state,” he said.

What Happens in an Electoral College Tie?

Nebraska changing its electoral system could have real consequences on the race. The change would see Harris’ chances of victory drop from 62 percent to 58 percent in Split Ticket’s election modeling, Lakshya Jain, who works for the forecaster, wrote in a post to X.

This could up the chances of an Electoral College tie.

In that scenario, the vote would go to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. Each state’s congressional delegation would get one vote. Currently, Republicans have 26 delegations, while Democrats have 22. Two other states, Minnesota and North Carolina, are tied.

But that could change in November, when every House seat, and 34 Senate seats, are up for election.

There have been tied elections in the past. In 1800, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr each received 73 Electoral College votes, sending the vote to Congress, which backed Jefferson after 36 ballots.

This post was originally published on this site