The battle for control of the Senate is largely centered around seats currently held by Democrats this year as President Joe Biden‘s party works to defend its narrow 51-49 seat majority.
Polling shows that the Republicans are favored to regain control of the Senate, with Decision Desk HQ predicting that they have a 70 percent chance of doing so.
However, several Senate races are very close this year. If the Democrats win the presidency and all their incumbents win back their Senate seats, they would only need to win one or more open seats in Arizona, Michigan and Maryland to keep control of the chamber.
But if Donald Trump wins the presidency and the Republicans pick up West Virginia, where Senator Joe Manchin is retiring, the party just needs to win one more seat to take control of the Senate.
Amid the close race, Newsweek has rounded up the 11 Senate races to watch until November.
Michigan
In Michigan, former Republican Representative Mike Rogers is battling Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin.
The seat is vacant following Debbie Stabenow’s retirement after serving since 2001.
Polls show Slotkin leading the contest. A poll published this month by Emerson College and The Hill put her 5 points ahead of Rogers, 47 percent to 42 percent. Another recent poll conducted by Morning Consult showed Slotkin 14 points ahead of her Republican opponent.
The RealClearPolitics poll tracker places Slotkin, on average, 5.1 points ahead of Rogers.
Despite Slotkin’s lead, Rogers has the endorsement of former President Trump and the financial backing of national Republicans, which could help his prospects come November.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated the contest for the seat a toss-up.
“This race is going to go down to the wire,” former Michigan Republican Representative Fred Upton told the Associated Press in August. “This is going to be two heavyweights, in a positive way. They really know the issues and will go toe to toe on them.”
Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., as seen on September 16. Republicans are projected to win back control of the Senate.
Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images
Arizona
In Arizona, former news anchor Kari Lake is battling Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego for a Senate seat that is vacant after incumbent Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2023.
Polls show Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District in the House, is leading Lake, who shot to national prominence as a figure in former President Donald Trump‘s MAGA movement after running for Arizona governor in 2021.
But while some polls have shown Gallego leading Lake in the double digits, including the most recent Morning Consult poll, which put Gallego 14 points ahead, other recent polls have shown the Democrat with a much smaller lead of between 1 and 8 points, including the most recent Emerson College poll which put him ahead by 6 points.
Lake has dismissed polling showing Gallego with a double-digit lead. “Nobody wins by 15 points. I put zero stock in these polls,” she told KTAR.
The Cook Report judges the contest as leaning Democrat.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Gallego 4.3 points ahead.
Since 2018, Arizona has chosen Democrats to represent voters in the Senate. Before that, voters mainly chose Republicans.
Maryland
The reliably Democratic state of Maryland is crucial to the party’s efforts to maintain control of the Senate.
However, a recent American Association of Retired Persons poll from August 20 showed the two candidates—Angela Alsobrooks and Larry Hogan—tied at 46 percent each.
Hogan, the former governor of Maryland, is a moderate Republican who has sought to distance himself from Trump. He markets himself as one of the few Republicans who has never “caved” to Trump, and he has highlighted his decision to dispatch the Maryland National Guard to put down the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
As a result, according to the Cook Report, a state that Trump lost to Joe Biden by 33 points in 2020 is in toss-up territory.
Meanwhile, other polls have shown Alsobrooks leading in the double digits, including a survey by Public Policy Polling conducted between September 16 and 17, which showed that she was 17 points ahead.
The most recent Morning Consult poll put Alsobrooks 12 points ahead.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Alsobrooks 6.8 points ahead.
Ohio
In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown is facing Republican candidate Bernie Moreno.
Moreno was not the Ohio GOP establishment’s choice. He was Trump’s choice for the seat instead.
Polls have shown Brown is leading Moreno by a small margin in the solidly Republican state.
The most recent Morning Consult poll put Brown just 2 points ahead of Moreno, 46 percent to his 44 percent. The previous Morning Consult poll put Brown 3 points ahead.
Another poll, conducted by Emerson College and The Hill between September 3 and 5, put Brown just 1 point ahead.
However, some polls have given Moreno the lead—for example, an Emerson College poll from March showed the Republican 1 point ahead.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Brown 3.6 points ahead. The Cook Political Report shows the Senate race in Ohio as a toss-up.
Voters in Ohio have historically fluctuated between choosing Democrats or Republicans to represent them in the Senate. In the last three Senate elections, Republicans have been selected.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, three-term incumbent Democrat senator Bob Casey is pitted against David McCormick, former chief executive of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. Casey is favored to hang on to his seat, with polls showing him up to 9 points ahead.
However, recent polls have shown that he has a narrow lead, including the most recent Emerson College poll, which put him 4 points ahead.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by The Washington Post between September 12 and 16 showed that he was tied with McCormick in a head-to-head matchup. Another August CNN poll also showed the two candidates tied.
McCormick has previously faced a loss in a Pennsylvania Senate race, coming in a close second in the 2022 Republican primary to Mehmet Oz. Dr. Oz went on to be defeated by Democrat John Fetterman in the general election for the seat vacated by retiring GOP Senator Pat Toomey, one of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial following the Capitol riot.
The Cook Report classes the seat as leaning Democrat.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Casey 4.5 points ahead in the state, which has mainly elected Republicans to the Senate.
Nevada
Senator Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democrat, is facing a challenge for her seat from Sam Brown, a graduate of West Point military academy and veteran of the long U.S.-led military effort in Afghanistan. Brown narrowly survived a roadside bomb attack in Kandahar that left him permanently scarred.
Polls show that Rosen is comfortably leading Brown. The most recent Emerson College poll put her 7 points ahead, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Meanwhile, Morning Consult showed Rosen 13 points ahead, while RealClearPolitics’ tracker puts Rosen 8.8 points ahead of her opponent.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, two-term senator Tammy Baldwin is up against Eric Hovde, a wealthy Republican banker and businessman funding his own campaign.
Although the Democrats are expected to win the state, polls have shown Baldwin leading by a fairly narrow margin.
For example, the most recent Emerson College poll showed Baldwin leading by only 3 points. An Emerson College poll from the end of August showed she was defending the state by just 1 point.
However, Baldwin has led every poll, and RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts her 4.7 points ahead.
The state has generally elected Democrats to the Senate, but in five of the last seven elections, Republicans have been chosen. The Cook Report judges the race to be leaning Democratic.
In the 2018 election, Baldwin won against Republican Leah Vukmir with 55.4 percent of the vote to Vukmir’s 44.6 percent. This was the widest margin of victory in any statewide race in Wisconsin that November, where the average margin of victory across statewide contests was 4.9 percent.
Montana
Democratic Senator Jon Tester is facing Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and businessman backed by Trump, in Montana’s Senate race.
Polls have differed in who is ahead. Most have put Sheehy in the lead, including the most recent AARP poll, conducted between August 25 and 26, which put him 6 points ahead.
Meanwhile, a Republican-funded poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies between August 18 and 20 put him 7 points ahead.
However, other polls have shown Tester ahead or the two candidates tied. An RMG Research poll conducted from August 6 to 14 put Tester 5 points ahead, while a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted from June 11 to 13 put the candidates neck and neck.
A June Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll also showed Tester and Sheehy tied.
The Cook Report categorizes the race as a toss-up. Montana has historically flipped between sending Democrats or Republicans to the Senate. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Sheehy 5.2 points ahead.
Texas
Incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz has consistently held a lead over his opponent, Colin Allred, throughout the election cycle.
However, the most recent state poll, conducted by Morning Consult, showed Allred with a 1-point lead over Cruz among 2,716 likely voters. His lead was within the poll’s margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Despite Allred’s small lead, the Cook Political Report still classifies the Texas Senate race as a likely Republican seat.
The previous poll conducted by Morning Consult found that Cruz was 5 points ahead, on 47 percent to Allred’s 42 percent, among 2,940 likely voters. The poll was conducted between August 30 and September 8.
Meanwhile, a YouGov and the University of Texas poll between August 23 and 31 found that Cruz was 8 points ahead among 1,200 registered voters.
Another poll, conducted by ActiVote between August 13 and 29 among 400 likely voters, put Cruz 10 points ahead. Other surveys have shown Cruz with a smaller lead of between 2 and 4 points.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Cruz on average 6 points ahead.
Texas has selected a Republican to represent them in the Senate every year since 1990.
Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke in 2018 by 214,921 votes out of more than 8.3 million cast.
Nonetheless, some Republicans still worry about how close the polls have been in this race.
“What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas ? I think i know …and i think i know his name … time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz,” Donald Trump‘s campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, last week.
Florida
In Florida, Republican incumbent Rick Scott is challenged by Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Scott has led in every poll during the election cycle. However, the two most recent polls, conducted by Morning Consult, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, have put Scott only 3 and 4 points ahead.
However, given Florida’s Republican voting history in recent elections, it would most likely take a severe erosion of Trump’s support to put the seat into play.
The Cook Political Report classifies the Senate race in Florida as a likely Republican seat.
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