Germany looks set to narrowly avoid having a far-right party as the strongest force in a second state on Sunday, just weeks the anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the first far-right party in post-war history to win an election.
The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) appear headed for a narrow election victory over the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, according to preliminary results.
Early figures point to a remarkable showing for Brandenburg’s incumbent SPD premier, Dietmar Woidke, who has led the state for 11 years and appears set to claim another term. Opinion polls weeks ahead of the vote showed the SPD trailing the AfD by as many as six percentage points.
The SPD has ruled in Brandenburg since 1990, when the first democratic elections were held in the state following the collapse of the communist regime in the former East Germany.
Projections based on initial results by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF at around 9 pm (1900 GMT) gave current Brandenburg state Premier Dietmar Woidke’s SPD 30.7% to 30.9% of the vote.
The AfD, coming from an election win in the central state of Thuringia at the start of September, trailed in the projections with 29.5% to 29.7%.
That would be a meaningful gain from 2019, when the AfD got 23.5% of the vote. But the AfD had hoped for a first-place finish over the SPD after opinion polls in the weeks before the election showed them in a narrow lead.
The projected results would be a significant improvement over the SPD’s performance in the most recent Brandenburg elections in 2019, when the party got 26.2%. The party also outperformed opinion polls, which showed the SPD with about 27%.
The projected results put the upstart populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) with a narrow lead for third place with 12.9% to 13.3% in the party’s first state election in Brandenburg.
The BSW, which launched as a party earlier this year, combines left-wing social policy with a hardline anti-immigration stance and strenuous opposition to Germany’s support for Ukraine.
The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) are projected to collect 11.8% to 12.1%, a major disappointment after polls suggested the party might gain seats. It is the worst-ever result for the CDU in a state election in the former East Germany.
The Greens, meanwhile, appeared likely to fall below the 5% threshold generally needed to take seats in German elections and be shut out of the next Brandenburg parliament. The projections gave the Greens 4.2% to 4.3%, which would be a substantial decline from the 10.8% the party gathered in 2019.
Woidke’s SPD is currently in a coalition government with the CDU and Greens, but the losses by both parties mean he will need to seek out new alliances to form another government.
The hard-left Die Linke (“The Left”) and the conservative Free Voters also appeared on track to lose their seats after losing support in Sunday’s election.
Brandenburg’s vote and the 2025 federal election
The SPD’s showing is also likely to be seen as a boost to embattled German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, even though Woidke kept Scholz at arm’s length during the campaign. Polls show Scholz’s SPD coalition with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats as being deeply unpopular.
Scholz, in New York for a UN summit, called the results “good, of course” but said he would wait until Monday before offering more detailed comments on them.
The news for the conservative CDU isn’t great. The Brandenburg election was the first one after Friedrich Merz was named the CDU’s chancellor candidate, so the party’s poor showing is likely to be seen unfavourably for the man who hopes to unseat Scholz next year.
The projected election results are based on initial results as well as exit polls. According to projections, voter turnout on Sunday was the highest in Brandenburg since 1990 at 73% to 74%, significantly higher than in 2019 (61.3%).
Gamble pays off for SPD’sWoidke
Woidke, an affable 62-year-old agricultural engineer, campaigned hard against the AfD while also seeking to distance himself from German Scholz, who is mired with miserable approval ratings.
SPD co-chairman Lars Klingbeil on Sunday endorsed Scholz as candidate for chancellor in 2025 in view of the Brandenburg result.
Woidke had put his neck on the line by insisting that, if the SPD does not place first in the election, he would step down and no longer lead the Brandenburg government as state premier.
Opinion polls in the weeks ahead of the election showing the SPD trailing the AfD by as much as six percentage points improved just before the vote, leaving the two parties at an essential tie.
“We have made up ground like never before in the history of our state,” said Woidke at the SPD election party in Potsdam.
Woidke on Sunday evening called the AfD’s apparent gains cause for alarm and reflection, even if his party manages to hold on to first place.
“When a party which is in part openly right-wing extremist succeeds here in Brandenburg with almost 30%, then that must give us reason to reflect,” Woidke said.
The CDU’s top candidate, meanwhile, called Sunday a “bitter evening” for the party as they fell “far below our expectations.”
The CDU’s Jan Redmann said he believes opinion polls showing the AfD in first place may have scared voters and pushed them to vote strategically for the SPD.
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