Donald Trump’s Resilient Polling in 2020’s Tipping-Point State

Former President Donald Trump‘s polling in Wisconsin is stronger than it was four years ago and well within the 2020 polling error, but political experts say this may not necessarily mean he’s winning over new voters in the crucial battleground state.

Wisconsin was the tipping point in the 2020 presidential race between Trump and President Joe Biden, meaning it carried Biden to 270 Electoral College votes, enough to win the election. It’s one of a handful of states that could be the tipping point again in November.

Harris holds a narrow polling lead in Wisconsin less than two months until Election Day, according to the leading polling averages. But surveys of the Badger State have also been better for Trump this time around compared to four years ago, when polling data suggested he could lose the state by nearly 10 points. Biden ultimately carried Wisconsin it by less than a single percentage point — far too close, if you were a Democrat.

Polls underestimated Trump more in Wisconsin than in any other state in 2020, and a similar polling error this year would be devastating to Harris’ chances of winning the state. But two political experts from Wisconsin told Newsweek the infamous 2020 polling error likely cannot be replicated, as pollsters have changed their methodology since the last presidential race.

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FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Biden leading in the stateby 8.4 points, while Real Clear Politics’ average showed him up by 6.7 points, on Election Day four years ago. Ultimately, Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.63 points, or about 20,000 votes.

As of September, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate has Harris up by 1.6 points, and RealClearPolitics’ average has Harris up by 1.2 points — well within the 2020 polling error.

Edward J. Miller, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point and co-director of the Center for the Small City, told Newsweek the polling difference may be attributed to pollsters adjusting their methodologies from 2020 and is simply better reflective of where the race actually is, rather than Trump winning over a substantial number of voters who opposed him four years earlier.

Trump may be facing a particularly chilly reception from Republican voters in the Milwaukee area, Miller said, noting that the former president isn’t “drawing much more” support from voters who previously backed Democrats in the state.

“There are some Republicans down there… that opposed him. This is moreso than in northern Wisconsin and rural areas,” Miller said.

Although suburban counties outside of Milwaukee still backed Trump in 2020, Democrats have made gains in the region in recent years.

Henrik M. Schatzinger, a professor of political science at Ripon College outside Green Bay, told Newsweek that there is a “sizable” group of his supporters who don’t participate in polls but who only make their voices known at the ballot box. Trump’s stronger 2024 polling in the state may be due to pollsters adjusting their methodologies based on past results, he said.

“For pollsters, this is an issue about weighting and sampling, where you have to make statistical adjustments. In the last few years, we have also seen adjustments as to how pollsters contact participants. They now use a better mix of contact methods and approach people via text messages, phone, postcards, and QR codes. It remains to be seen if these adjustments have been effective this year,”Schatzinger said.

Another reason his polling may be stronger this time is because Republicans have been investing heavily in the state, including by holding convention in Milwaukee.

The state is also demographically key to both candidates, as it is likely to reflect their support among white voters without bachelor’s degrees.

“This group of voters makes up 58 percent of registered voters, which is a higher share than any of the seven battleground states. To win the election, you need to get sufficient support from white working-class voters, and there is no better test case for this than Wisconsin,” he said.

Several pollsters that gave Biden a more comfortable lead in 2020 show the race as being much closer in 2024.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from September 15 to 18, found Trump with a single-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 49 percent). But the same poll from around the same time in 2020 found Biden with a 6-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 45 percent). That poll surveyed 823 likely voters from September 6 to September 8 of that year.

Elsewhere, a Marist College poll, conducted among September 12 to September 17, 2024 found Harris leading Trump by a single point in Wisconsin (50 percent to 49 percent). A Marist poll conducted from September 20 to September 24, 2020 among 727 likely voters showed Biden up 10 points (54 percent to 44 percent).

Notably, the Marquette Law School poll, viewed as the gold standard for Wisconsin, did not show Trump gain from 2020.

A Marquette poll released earlier this month showed Harris up four points (52 percent to 48 percent). It surveyed 738 likely voters from August 28 to September 5. For comparison, a Marquette poll from August 30 to September 3, 2024 showed Biden with a 4-point lead (48 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 688 likely voters.

Political scientist Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote a week ago that Wisconsin “stands out as having had unrealistically optimistic polling for Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.” However, he noted it is unclear whether the polls will have the same error in November.

“Maybe Trump will be understated again: if so, he is almost certainly going to win the election given how close the polls are now. Maybe Harris will be understated: if so, she is in a great position to win given that she appears to already lead in enough states to win 270 electoral votes, albeit barely,” he wrote.

Aaron Weinschenk, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, told Newsweek that previous polls may have been off because they do not capture late changes in support or fully capture certain subgroups within states.

“I think the Harris campaign should definitely be concerned about the possibility of Trump’s support being underestimated given what has happened in Wisconsin and other battleground states in terms of polling,” Weinschenk said.

With only 10 Electoral College votes, Wisconsin is smaller than some other battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Georgia or North Carolina but could very well end up being the tipping point state again in November, according to Schatzinger from Ripon College.

Still, Trump and Harris both have numerous paths to 270 without winning Wisconsin, as they could win various combinations of other swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina or Pennsylvania to make up for a loss in the Badger State.

Democrats remain focused on their so-called “blue wall,” hoping to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as their easiest path to 270. Some political analysts view Pennsylvania as Harris’ must-win state, as losing there would more severely complicate her path and make her entirely dependent on the Sun Belt states.

In Wisconsin, making appearances on the ground is crucial to winning over the states highly engaged voters, Miller said. Specifically, candidates must get out of their comfort zones and visit areas away of their voter bases in the state—rural areas for Trump and Madison and Milwaukee for Harris—to narrow the margin in places they are unlikely to win.

He noted that Wisconsin prides itself on having one of the highest turnouts in the country, and that the student population in places like La Crosse and Stevens Point could end up crucial for Harris.

Hillary Clinton barnstormed those counties in the 2016 primary, then largely failed to return for the general election. She ended up losing Wisconsin by less than a point, and thus the election, to Donald Trump.

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