Colin Allred’s Polling Against Ted Cruz Compared to Beto O’Rourke’s in 2018

Amid this year’s U.S. Senate race, Representative Colin Allred is polling about the same against Senator Ted Cruz as Cruz’s former opponent Beto O’Rourke polled in the 2018 election based on an analysis of past and current polls.

Allred, a former professional football player currently serving Texas’s 32nd district as a first-term Democrat representative, will go up in November against Cruz, a Republican who has held his Senate seat since 2013.

It will be an uphill battle for Allred to win Cruz’s Senate seat in the red state. Then-Representative Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, got close during the 2018 election, but Cruz ultimately beat him.

In a Morning Consult poll conducted from September 9 to 18, Allred is leading Cruz for the first time, albeit by 1 point (45 to 44 percent). The poll surveyed 2,716 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.

Allred was trailing not too far behind Cruz in previous polls. In a Morning Consult poll conducted between August 30 and September 8, Cruz was ahead by 5 points (47 to 42 percent). A total of 2,940 likely voters were polled. The margin of error was not publicly available.

Meanwhile, in a The Hill/Emerson College poll taken from September 3 to 5, Cruz was leading Allred by 4 points (48 to 44 percent). The poll surveyed 845 likely voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

At this time in 2018, O’Rourke was polling slightly better against Cruz than Allred, but Cruz still pulled ahead in most polls.

In a Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 11-17, 2018, Cruz was leading O’Rourke by 9 points (54 to 45 percent). The were 807 likely voters surveyed and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percent.

However, O’Rourke did pull ahead of Cruz in a Reuters/University of Virginia Center for Politics/Ipsos poll taken from September 6 to 14, 2018, in which O’Rourke was up by 2 points (47 to 45 percent). The poll questioned 992 likely voters and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Meanwhile, a Crosswind Media & Public Relations poll conducted between September 6 and 9, 2018, saw Cruz ahead of O’Rourke by 3 points (47 to 44 percent). A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to Cruz’s and Allred’s campaigns via email late Saturday morning.

O’Rourke received national buzz as the underdog in the 2018 Senate race. He garnered $70 million in campaign contributions but failed to unseat Cruz by 2.6 percent of the vote.

Closer to the election, O’Rourke was still polling a few points behind Cruz.

In a University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research poll taken from October 15 to 28, 2018, Cruz was ahead of O’Rourke by 4.3 points (46.5 to 42.2 percent). The poll surveyed 1,033 registered voters and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.03 percent.

Meanwhile, in a Reuters/University of Virginia Center for Politics/Ipsos poll conducted between October 12 and 18, Cruz led O’Rourke by 5 points (49 to 44 percent). A total of 1,298 likely voters were surveyed and the credibility interval was plus or minus 3.1 percent.

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