As Groups Have Shifted, Has It Become a ‘Normal’ Election?

Labor Day usually marks the start of the heart of campaign season, but this year it felt like a lull — a brief respite after two tumultuous months.

At the end of it all, the presidential campaign almost feels as if it’s back to “normal.” The candidates fought over the issues and their agendas. There were no questions about whether a candidate was going to drop out. And if the polls are any indication, public opinion is finally settling into something more like normal as well.

Just take a look at our polling averages, which have been updated since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s departure from the race (a return to normal in its own right). There’s no sign of the political chaos of the last few months. Instead, the results look typical: Nationwide, Kamala Harris leads Donald J. Trump by three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Across the battleground states, the race is a dead heat. In every state and nationwide, the polling average is within 1.5 points of the result of the 2020 presidential election.

In short, the polls finally show the close election that analysts expected a year ago, before President Biden’s candidacy went off the rails. If anything, it’s even closer than expected: The polling averages today are closer than the final pre-election polling in any presidential election in the era of modern polling — closer than 2000, 2004 or 2012, let alone 2016 or 2020.

The uncommon demographic patterns of the last year — the erosion of support for Mr. Biden among traditionally Democratic groups — have been fading as well. But here there are a few more vestiges of what we saw in the unusual Biden-Trump polling. In some cases, it’s a bit of a surprise. Here’s how the race is — or isn’t — returning to normal.

The return of the generational divide

The Democratic lead among young voters is back. In high-quality polls over the last month, Vice President Harris leads Mr. Trump by an average of 20 points among the youngest reported demographic cohort (whether that be 18 to 29 or 18 to 34 in a given poll). The same polls showed Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump tied among young voters in July. Older voters, meanwhile, have barely edged at all toward Ms. Harris. Put it together, and the usual generational divide in American politics has returned.