Heavy rains lashed the Cayman Islands on Tuesday as forecasters warned that a nearby cluster of thunderstorms could soon become a major hurricane en route to the south-east US.
Hurricane watches were in effect for Florida’s Tampa Bay and from Englewood to Indian Pass, as well as for eastern Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Tulum – and for Cuba’s Pinar del Río province. Hurricane conditions could be possible in parts of Cuba and Mexico early on Wednesday and in parts of Florida late on Wednesday and early on Thursday, according to the US’s National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The disturbance would then move “over extremely deep and warm waters” that would fuel its intensification.
“Conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday,” the center said. “This system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.”
The disturbance is expected to become a category 3 before approaching the north-east Gulf coast. Since 2000, eight major hurricanes have made landfall in Florida, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane researcher.
Given the anticipated large size, storm surge, wind and rain will extend far from the center of the expected storm, especially on the east side. The center warned of “inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the south-eastern United States after landfall”.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for Grand Cayman; for eastern Mexico from Río Lagartos to Tulum; and for Cuba’s Artemisa, Pinar del Río and the Isle of Youth.
Meanwhile, a storm surge watch was in effect for Florida’s Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor and from Indian Pass south to Flamingo. A tropical storm watch was issued for Dry Tortugas, the Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge, Flamingo to the south of Englewood and from west of Indian Pass to the Walton Bay county line.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Florida, urged people to take potential evacuations seriously. Heavy rainfall is forecast for the south-east US starting o Wednesday, threatening flash- and river flooding, according to the NHC. Up to 6in (15cm) of rain was forecast for the region, with isolated totals of 10in (25cm).
A storm surge of up to 15ft (5 meters) was forecast from Ochlockonee River, Florida, to Chassahowitzka, and up to 10ft (3 meters) from Chassahowitzka to Anclote River and from Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River.
The NHC wrote on the social media network X: “10-15ft of surge is NOT survivable.”
On Monday, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, declared a state of emergency in 41 counties.
The disturbance was expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Tuesday and then into a major hurricane as it approaches the north-east Gulf coast on Thursday. It was located about 150 miles (240km) west of Grand Cayman. It had maximum sustained winds of 35mph (55km/h) and was moving north-west at 9mph (15km/h).
Officials in the Cayman Islands shuttered schools and airports as forecasters warned of heavy wind and rain and waves of up to 10ft (3 meters).
“The current conditions present significant risk, and we must prioritize our safety,” said Ian Yearwood with the Royal Cayman Islands police service.
Meanwhile, many in Cuba worried about the disturbance, whose tentacles are expected to reach the capital of Havana, which is struggling with a severe shortage of water and piles of uncollected garbage.
Overall, roughly 600,000 people in Cuba are experiencing water shortages, including more than 130,000 in Havana alone. Chronic power outages also persist.
The disturbance is expected to slip through waters separating Cuba from Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula late on Tuesday and then head north to the Gulf coast.
Up to 8in of rain is forecast for western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated total of some 12in (30cm). Up to 4in (10cm) of rain is expected for the eastern Yucatán peninsula, with isolated total of more than 6in (15cm) inches.
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