2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages

On 21 July, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris. This historic move changed the landscape of the election and how many felt about the race. As the election enters its final weeks, Guardian US is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring. We will update our averages once a week, or more if there is major news.

Latest analysis: the US presidential election remains on a knife-edge 45 days before voters go to the polls, despite Kamala Harris enjoying one of her most encouraging spells of opinion polling since becoming the Democrats’ nominee nearly two months ago.

Polling suggests voters, by large majorities, believe Harris won the latest debate – when Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, effectively self-sabotaged by going on off-topic digressions about crowd sizes at his rallies and making universally debunked claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets. Yet amid the optimism, there is a note of caution for the vice-president; Trump significantly over-performed pollsters’ predictions in the “blue wall states” in the last two elections, capturing all three in 2016 and losing each by about a single percentage point in 2020. – Robert Tait, 20 September

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Notes on data

To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for national polls. Our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. If there were no polls over the the 10-day period, we leave the average blank.

Polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. Averages from states with small numbers of polls are also more susceptible to errors and biases. Our averages are an estimate of the support that the candidates have in key swing states and on the national stage. The election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in November.

Read more about the US election:

• Harris regains small poll lead post-debate as US election inches closer

• Can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election?

• Who is running for president?

• Sign up for The Stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 US presidential election

• Read our polling analysis from 7 September, 4 September and 30 August

• Candidate illustrations by Sam Kerr

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