RFK Jr. on ballot could help Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin; off ballot in five other states
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is off the ballot in five of the seven key swing states heading into November, but his name will appear on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan, two of the most important Rust Belt states.
The move, analysts say, could help Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign because recent polling suggests Mr. Kennedy takes away votes from former President Donald Trump, whom he endorsed after suspending his own campaign.
Democrats had been trying to get Mr. Kennedy, nephew of the late President John F. Kennedy, off the ballot but recently reversed course once Ms. Harris took over as the Democratic nominee from President Biden.
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, said the reversal is “pretty astounding.”
“According to polling, RFK hurts Trump more than Harris whereas before RFK hurt Biden more than Trump,” Mr. O’Connell said.
NBC News noted in its polling last month that Mr. Kennedy appeals more to Republican voters than to Democratic voters.
Though third-party candidates don’t receive nearly as much percentage of the vote as the Democratic or Republican candidates, in tight battleground races their presence could make the difference.
“Anyone who gobbles up even 20,000 votes could wind up shifting the state. There is precedent for this,” Mr. O’Connell said.
Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist, said the Harris campaign is just focusing on winning the election no matter who is on the ballot in each state.
“No one is sitting around putting numbers in the equation box about the impact of RFK in any place. What Democrats are focused on is running a high-tech campaign that will simply lay the contrast and remind voters of the choice, and RFK and Donald Trump are the same choice,” he said.
Other August polls have been unclear on Mr. Kennedy’s impact on the race.
A New York Times/Siena College poll found that Mr. Kennedy took about the same percentage of voters from both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris.
In recent elections, some reporting has suggested Democrats believed that third-party candidates — like the Green Party’s Jill Stein — siphoned votes away from Hillary Clinton in her 2016 loss to Mr. Trump.
Five battleground states have left Mr. Kennedy’s name off the ballot.
He did not qualify in Georgia over an issue with his residency.
North Carolina’s Supreme Court recently ruled he could remove his name from its state ballot after he suspended his campaign last month and jumped on board the Trump train. His endorsement of Mr. Trump has angered the Kennedy family, which has thrown its legacy weight behind the Democratic ticket.
And election officials kept his name off the ballot in Pennsylvania, while he was able to withdraw his name from the Arizona ballot.
In Nevada, Democrats had sued to keep him off the ticket. But Mr. Kennedy was able to settle that lawsuit a week after he suspended his own campaign, reaching an agreement with the Democratic-backed litigation to have his name removed.
Two key swing states, though, have had recent court rulings leaving him on their November tickets.
Michigan’s Supreme Court ruled Sept. 9 that it was too late for Mr. Kennedy to withdraw his name. And a federal judge on Wednesday confirmed that he should remain on Michigan’s ballot.
And this week, a Wisconsin judge cited a state law that only allows a candidate to withdraw his or her name upon death, denying Mr. Kennedy’s request.
Mr. Kennedy also was unable to get on the New York ballot over questions about his residency, which Georgia also cited in keeping him off the Peach State’s ticket. A New York judge had denied Mr. Kennedy’s bid to get on its ballot over saying he resided in the state, when he was living in California.
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